COMPARACIÓN DE NUESTRO MODELO CON EL BUY AND HOLD

 Para aquellos interesados en venir a la charla sobre inversión por estacionalidad en el mundo y en América Latina que se dictará en abril, comparto aquí los resultados del método desde 1950 en adelante. 


Como verán, el modelo dejó de lado los momentos a la baja y logró obtener un monto tres veces mayor que el BUY and HOLD.

DSL CONSULTING TIMING
		MEJORES 6 MESES			MÉTODO DE Buy & Hold
		BULL SEASON		Investing		DJIA
fecha salida	Fecha entrada	DJIA	%	10	Year	%	10
22-Apr-50	14-nov-50	229.54	13.3	11,33	1950	17.6	11,763
10-may-51	13-nov-51	260.41	1.9	11,545	1951	14.4	13,453
5-Apr-52	31-oct-52	269.23	2.1	11,788	1952	8.4	14,586
30-Apr-53	23-oct-53	275.34	17.1	13,804	1953	-3.8	14,036
14-may-54	05-nov-54	366.00	16.3	16,054	1954	44.0	20,207
29-Apr-55	21-oct-55	458.47	13.1	18,157	1955	20.8	24,404
9-Apr-56	08-oct-56	483.38	2.8	18,665	1956	2.3	24,957
09-may-57	29-oct-57	435.76	4.9	19,58	1957	-12.8	21,771
16-may-58	06-oct-58	536.29	16.7	22,849	1958	34.0	29,164
05-may-59	06-oct-59	636.06	-3.1	22,141	1959	16.4	33,946
22-Apr-60	07-oct-60	586.42	16.9	25,883	1960	-9.3	30,775
21-Apr-61	09-oct-61	705.42	-1.5	25,495	1961	18.7	36,533
23-Apr-62	10-oct-62	588.14	22.4	31,205	1962	-10.8	32,584
01-may-63	18-oct-63	750.60	9.6	34,201	1963	17.0	38,123
14-Apr-64	09-nov-64	878.08	6.2	36,322	1964	14.6	43,678
19-may-65	26-oct-65	956.32	-2.5	35,414	1965	10.9	48,432
02-may-66	17-oct-66	778.89	14.3	40,478	1966	-18.9	39,259
12-may-67	21-nov-67	870.95	5.5	42,704	1967	15.2	45,226
08-may-68	14-oct-68	949.96	0.2	42,789	1968	4.3	47,157
21-may-69	16-oct-69	838.77	-6.7	39,923	1969	-15.2	39,992
15-Apr-70	06-nov-70	771.97	20.8	48,226	1970	4.8	41,919
03-may-71	29-nov-71	829.73	15.4	55,653	1971	6.1	44,481
24-Apr-72	25-oct-72	951.38	-1.4	54,874	1972	14.6	50,968
26-Apr-73	11-Dec-73	834.18	0.1	54,929	1973	-16.6	42,515
26-Apr-74	10-oct-74	648.08	28.2	70,419	1974	-27.6	30,792
01-may-75	17-oct-75	832.18	18.5	83,447	1975	38.3	42,593
05-may-76	28-oct-76	952.63	-3.0	80,943	1976	17.9	50,2
27-Apr-77	31-oct-77	818.35	0.5	81,348	1977	-17.3	41,531
09-may-78	14-nov-78	785.26	9.3	88,913	1978	-3.1	40,224
17-Apr-79	05-nov-79	812.63	7.0	95,137	1979	4.2	41,91
20-jun-80	10-oct-80	950.68	4.7	99,609	1980	14.9	48,168
01-may-81	14-oct-81	850.65	0.4	100,007	1981	-9.2	43,722
04-may-82	08-oct-82	986.85	23.5	123,509	1982	19.6	52,293
13-may-83	21-oct-83	1248.88	-7.3	114,493	1983	20.3	62,891
11-may-84	17-oct-84	1195.89	3.9	118,958	1984	-3.7	60,539
01-may-85	04-oct-85	1328.74	38.1	164,281	1985	27.7	77,283
25-Apr-86	06-oct-86	1784.45	28.2	210,608	1986	22.6	94,736
13-Apr-87	04-nov-87	1945.29	3.0	216,926	1987	2.3	96,878
10-may-88	12-oct-88	2126.24	11.8	242,523	1988	11.8	108,358
08-may-89	14-nov-89	2610.25	3.3	250,527	1989	27.0	137,57
20-Apr-90	22-oct-90	2516.09	15.8	290,11	1990	-4.3	131,597
26-Apr-91	17-oct-91	3053.00	11.3	322,892	1991	20.3	158,338
11-may-92	21-oct-92	3187.10	6.6	344,203	1992	4.2	164,948
26-Apr-93	07-oct-93	3583.63	5.6	363,478	1993	13.7	187,582
13-jun-94	17-oct-94	3923.93	13.1	411,094	1994	2.1	191,597
23-may-95	23-oct-95	4755.48	16.7	479,747	1995	33.5	255,689
17-Apr-96	17-oct-96	6059.20	21.9	584,811	1996	26.0	322,203
27-may-97	18-nov-97	7650.82	18.5	693,001	1997	22.6	395,155
24-Apr-98	13-oct-98	7938.14	39.9	969,509	1998	16.1	458,772
13-may-99	20-oct-99	10392.36	5.1	1,018,954	1999	25.2	574,481
13-Apr-00	23-oct-00	10271.72	5.4	1,073,978	2000	-6.2	539,048
11-may-01	02-oct-01	8950.59	15.8	1,243,666	2001	-7.1	500,801
1-Apr-02	02-oct-02	7755.61	6.0	1,318,286	2002	-16.8	416,667
10-Apr-03	03-oct-03	9572.31	7.8	1,421,112	2003	25.3	522,176
20-Apr-04	04-oct-04	10216.54	1.8	1,446,692	2004	3.1	538,614
1-Apr-05	17-oct-05	10348.10	7.7	1,558,088	2005	-0.6	535,329
3-Apr-06	02-oct-06	11670.35	14.4	1,782,452	2006	16.3	622,534
14-may-07	01-oct-07	14087.55	-12.7	1,556,081	2007	6.4	662,562
14-April-08	20-oct-08	9265.43	-14.0	1,338,229	2008	-33.8	438,616
21-Apr-09	09-oct-09	9864.94	10.8	1,482,758	2009	18.8	521,076
8-April-10	04-nov-10	11434.84	7.3	1,591,000	2010	11.0	578,395
13-April-11					2011
61-Year Loss	61-Year Gain			$1,581,000	61-Year Gain		$ 568,40