Tras ser fuertemente castigada, CSCO ha dejado de bajar y comenzó el ascenso, el cual vale señalar será volátil pero muy grade. En los próximos días tomaremos una posición en esta empresa que no dudamos que a abril del año 2013 dará sus frutos.
Se puede ver que desde el punto de vista técnico cruzó la media móvil de 200 días y otros indicadores nos muestran que de acá a poco comenzará una fuerte acumulación de los grandes. En la semana veremos que nos dice el sistema Koncorde sobre si las manos fuertes entraron o no aún en esta empresa.
Para aquellos interesados en venir a la charla sobre inversión por estacionalidad en el mundo y en América Latina que se dictará en abril, comparto aquí los resultados del método desde 1950 en adelante.
Como verán, el modelo dejó de lado los momentos a la baja y logró obtener un monto tres veces mayor que el BUY and HOLD.
| DSL CONSULTING TIMING |
| |
|
MEJORES 6 MESES |
|
MÉTODO DE Buy & Hold |
| |
|
BULL SEASON |
Investing |
|
DJIA |
|
| fecha salida |
Fecha entrada |
DJIA |
% |
10 |
Year |
% |
10 |
| 22-Apr-50 |
14-nov-50 |
229.54 |
13.3 |
11,33 |
1950 |
17.6 |
11,763 |
| 10-may-51 |
13-nov-51 |
260.41 |
1.9 |
11,545 |
1951 |
14.4 |
13,453 |
| 5-Apr-52 |
31-oct-52 |
269.23 |
2.1 |
11,788 |
1952 |
8.4 |
14,586 |
| 30-Apr-53 |
23-oct-53 |
275.34 |
17.1 |
13,804 |
1953 |
-3.8 |
14,036 |
| 14-may-54 |
05-nov-54 |
366.00 |
16.3 |
16,054 |
1954 |
44.0 |
20,207 |
| 29-Apr-55 |
21-oct-55 |
458.47 |
13.1 |
18,157 |
1955 |
20.8 |
24,404 |
| 9-Apr-56 |
08-oct-56 |
483.38 |
2.8 |
18,665 |
1956 |
2.3 |
24,957 |
| 09-may-57 |
29-oct-57 |
435.76 |
4.9 |
19,58 |
1957 |
-12.8 |
21,771 |
| 16-may-58 |
06-oct-58 |
536.29 |
16.7 |
22,849 |
1958 |
34.0 |
29,164 |
| 05-may-59 |
06-oct-59 |
636.06 |
-3.1 |
22,141 |
1959 |
16.4 |
33,946 |
| 22-Apr-60 |
07-oct-60 |
586.42 |
16.9 |
25,883 |
1960 |
-9.3 |
30,775 |
| 21-Apr-61 |
09-oct-61 |
705.42 |
-1.5 |
25,495 |
1961 |
18.7 |
36,533 |
| 23-Apr-62 |
10-oct-62 |
588.14 |
22.4 |
31,205 |
1962 |
-10.8 |
32,584 |
| 01-may-63 |
18-oct-63 |
750.60 |
9.6 |
34,201 |
1963 |
17.0 |
38,123 |
| 14-Apr-64 |
09-nov-64 |
878.08 |
6.2 |
36,322 |
1964 |
14.6 |
43,678 |
| 19-may-65 |
26-oct-65 |
956.32 |
-2.5 |
35,414 |
1965 |
10.9 |
48,432 |
| 02-may-66 |
17-oct-66 |
778.89 |
14.3 |
40,478 |
1966 |
-18.9 |
39,259 |
| 12-may-67 |
21-nov-67 |
870.95 |
5.5 |
42,704 |
1967 |
15.2 |
45,226 |
| 08-may-68 |
14-oct-68 |
949.96 |
0.2 |
42,789 |
1968 |
4.3 |
47,157 |
| 21-may-69 |
16-oct-69 |
838.77 |
-6.7 |
39,923 |
1969 |
-15.2 |
39,992 |
| 15-Apr-70 |
06-nov-70 |
771.97 |
20.8 |
48,226 |
1970 |
4.8 |
41,919 |
| 03-may-71 |
29-nov-71 |
829.73 |
15.4 |
55,653 |
1971 |
6.1 |
44,481 |
| 24-Apr-72 |
25-oct-72 |
951.38 |
-1.4 |
54,874 |
1972 |
14.6 |
50,968 |
| 26-Apr-73 |
11-Dec-73 |
834.18 |
0.1 |
54,929 |
1973 |
-16.6 |
42,515 |
| 26-Apr-74 |
10-oct-74 |
648.08 |
28.2 |
70,419 |
1974 |
-27.6 |
30,792 |
| 01-may-75 |
17-oct-75 |
832.18 |
18.5 |
83,447 |
1975 |
38.3 |
42,593 |
| 05-may-76 |
28-oct-76 |
952.63 |
-3.0 |
80,943 |
1976 |
17.9 |
50,2 |
| 27-Apr-77 |
31-oct-77 |
818.35 |
0.5 |
81,348 |
1977 |
-17.3 |
41,531 |
| 09-may-78 |
14-nov-78 |
785.26 |
9.3 |
88,913 |
1978 |
-3.1 |
40,224 |
| 17-Apr-79 |
05-nov-79 |
812.63 |
7.0 |
95,137 |
1979 |
4.2 |
41,91 |
| 20-jun-80 |
10-oct-80 |
950.68 |
4.7 |
99,609 |
1980 |
14.9 |
48,168 |
| 01-may-81 |
14-oct-81 |
850.65 |
0.4 |
100,007 |
1981 |
-9.2 |
43,722 |
| 04-may-82 |
08-oct-82 |
986.85 |
23.5 |
123,509 |
1982 |
19.6 |
52,293 |
| 13-may-83 |
21-oct-83 |
1248.88 |
-7.3 |
114,493 |
1983 |
20.3 |
62,891 |
| 11-may-84 |
17-oct-84 |
1195.89 |
3.9 |
118,958 |
1984 |
-3.7 |
60,539 |
| 01-may-85 |
04-oct-85 |
1328.74 |
38.1 |
164,281 |
1985 |
27.7 |
77,283 |
| 25-Apr-86 |
06-oct-86 |
1784.45 |
28.2 |
210,608 |
1986 |
22.6 |
94,736 |
| 13-Apr-87 |
04-nov-87 |
1945.29 |
3.0 |
216,926 |
1987 |
2.3 |
96,878 |
| 10-may-88 |
12-oct-88 |
2126.24 |
11.8 |
242,523 |
1988 |
11.8 |
108,358 |
| 08-may-89 |
14-nov-89 |
2610.25 |
3.3 |
250,527 |
1989 |
27.0 |
137,57 |
| 20-Apr-90 |
22-oct-90 |
2516.09 |
15.8 |
290,11 |
1990 |
-4.3 |
131,597 |
| 26-Apr-91 |
17-oct-91 |
3053.00 |
11.3 |
322,892 |
1991 |
20.3 |
158,338 |
| 11-may-92 |
21-oct-92 |
3187.10 |
6.6 |
344,203 |
1992 |
4.2 |
164,948 |
| 26-Apr-93 |
07-oct-93 |
3583.63 |
5.6 |
363,478 |
1993 |
13.7 |
187,582 |
| 13-jun-94 |
17-oct-94 |
3923.93 |
13.1 |
411,094 |
1994 |
2.1 |
191,597 |
| 23-may-95 |
23-oct-95 |
4755.48 |
16.7 |
479,747 |
1995 |
33.5 |
255,689 |
| 17-Apr-96 |
17-oct-96 |
6059.20 |
21.9 |
584,811 |
1996 |
26.0 |
322,203 |
| 27-may-97 |
18-nov-97 |
7650.82 |
18.5 |
693,001 |
1997 |
22.6 |
395,155 |
| 24-Apr-98 |
13-oct-98 |
7938.14 |
39.9 |
969,509 |
1998 |
16.1 |
458,772 |
| 13-may-99 |
20-oct-99 |
10392.36 |
5.1 |
1,018,954 |
1999 |
25.2 |
574,481 |
| 13-Apr-00 |
23-oct-00 |
10271.72 |
5.4 |
1,073,978 |
2000 |
-6.2 |
539,048 |
| 11-may-01 |
02-oct-01 |
8950.59 |
15.8 |
1,243,666 |
2001 |
-7.1 |
500,801 |
| 1-Apr-02 |
02-oct-02 |
7755.61 |
6.0 |
1,318,286 |
2002 |
-16.8 |
416,667 |
| 10-Apr-03 |
03-oct-03 |
9572.31 |
7.8 |
1,421,112 |
2003 |
25.3 |
522,176 |
| 20-Apr-04 |
04-oct-04 |
10216.54 |
1.8 |
1,446,692 |
2004 |
3.1 |
538,614 |
| 1-Apr-05 |
17-oct-05 |
10348.10 |
7.7 |
1,558,088 |
2005 |
-0.6 |
535,329 |
| 3-Apr-06 |
02-oct-06 |
11670.35 |
14.4 |
1,782,452 |
2006 |
16.3 |
622,534 |
| 14-may-07 |
01-oct-07 |
14087.55 |
-12.7 |
1,556,081 |
2007 |
6.4 |
662,562 |
| 14-April-08 |
20-oct-08 |
9265.43 |
-14.0 |
1,338,229 |
2008 |
-33.8 |
438,616 |
| 21-Apr-09 |
09-oct-09 |
9864.94 |
10.8 |
1,482,758 |
2009 |
18.8 |
521,076 |
| 8-April-10 |
04-nov-10 |
11434.84 |
7.3 |
1,591,000 |
2010 |
11.0 |
578,395 |
| 13-April-11 |
|
|
|
|
2011 |
|
|
| 61-Year Loss |
61-Year Gain |
$1,581,000 |
61-Year Gain |
$ 568,40 |
